August 11 to November 9, 2026 vs. May 13 to August 11, 2026, closed sales from RealTracs MLS
Last month I said the Nashville market had turned. I pulled fresh numbers this week to see if October changed anything. It didn’t. It got a little worse, and it spread.
The typical house in Davidson County sold for $25,000 less than it did over the summer. It sat on the market a week longer. And more sellers ended up taking less than their original asking price.
The numbers
| Davidson County | May 13 to Aug 11 | Aug 11 to Nov 9 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed sales | 3,077 | 2,400 | −22% |
| Median sale price | $485,000 | $460,000 | −5.2% |
| Median price per sq ft | $278.64 | $264.71 | −5.0% |
| Median days on market | 15 | 22 | +7 days |
| Sale price vs. original list (median) | 97.9% | 96.9% | −1.0 pt |
| Sold below original ask | 64% | 69% | +5 pts |
| Listings cancelled or expired per closed sale | 1.09 | 1.41 | +29% |
Fall is always slower, so don’t read the drop in closed sales as all bad news. Some of that is just the calendar.
What worries me more is that price, price per foot and time on market all went the wrong way at the same time. That happened last month too.
The last line is the one I’d pay attention to if you’re thinking about selling. For every house that closed, about 1.4 listings came off the market without selling. I counted those a little differently this time, so compare them to each other and not to last month’s report.
Compared to this time last year
Comparing fall to summer always makes fall look bad. So I also lined up these same 90 days against the same 90 days in 2025. Same season, same calendar.
| Davidson County | Aug 11 to Nov 9, 2025 | Aug 11 to Nov 9, 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed sales | 2,970 | 2,400 | −19% |
| Median sale price | $499,900 | $460,000 | −8.0% |
| Median price per sq ft | $275.22 | $264.71 | −3.8% |
| Median days on market | 19 | 22 | +3 days |
| Sold below original ask | 68% | 69% | +1 pt |
That’s almost $40,000 off the typical sale price in a year, with about one in five fewer homes closing. You can’t blame that one on the season.
I went back six quarters, to May 2025. The median sale price and price per square foot are the lowest of any 90 days in that stretch. Last winter was still a little slower and a little tougher on sellers when it came to negotiating, so we’re not at the bottom on every measure. But on price, this is the weakest the market has been in a year and a half.
It’s not just the expensive homes anymore
| Price tier | Prior 90 days | Last 90 days | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $300K | 420 | 372 | −11% |
| $300K to $500K | 1,119 | 965 | −14% |
| $500K to $800K | 713 | 590 | −17% |
| $800K to $1.5M | 415 | 313 | −25% |
| $1.5M and up | 248 | 160 | −35% |
Every price range sold fewer homes. The higher you go, the bigger the drop. Over $1.5M, closings fell by more than a third.
As of November 9 there were 4,694 homes for sale or coming soon in Davidson County and 1,046 under contract. That’s about four and a half listings for every one that’s pending. Buyers have choices again, and they’re using them.
Neighborhood by neighborhood
I only compared ZIP codes with at least 40 sales in both periods. That left 21.
Where prices fell the most
- 37218, Bordeaux: $419,900 down to $349,990 (−16.6%). Homes went from 18 days on market to 32. Smaller sample, only 41 sales.
- 37072, Goodlettsville: $375,000 down to $320,935 (−14.4%).
- 37207, North Nashville: $494,900 down to $427,525 (−13.6%). About the same number of sales both periods, so this one isn’t a fluke.
- 37215, Green Hills and Forest Hills: $1,502,500 down to $1,300,000 (−13.5%). Days on market more than doubled, 10 to 22.
- 37221, Bellevue: $499,000 down to $462,500 (−7.3%). 74% of sales closed under the original ask.
- 37206, East Nashville: $740,000 down to $690,000 (−6.8%).
Where prices held or went up
- 37216, Inglewood: $456,250 up to $577,000. Days on market still went from 11 to 25.
- 37203, Midtown and Music Row: $683,450 up to $829,907.
- 37205, Belle Meade and West Meade: $1,000,000 up to $1,150,000. Still selling in about 11 days. Belle Meade is Belle Meade.
- 37208, Germantown and Hope Gardens: $500,000 up to $572,500, but homes took twice as long to sell (36 days).
- 37217, Hickory Hollow: $311,250 up to $350,000, but 4 out of 5 sold under asking.
A word of caution on those medians. In a smaller ZIP, a few nicer houses closing in the same month can move the number a lot. Trust the direction more than the exact percent.
The thing I can’t explain away is speed. Homes took longer to sell in 18 of these 21 ZIP codes.
Where buyers got the most room to negotiate
- Crieve Hall and South Nashville (37211): sold under ask went from 66% to 77%.
- Donelson (37214): 62% to 73%, and days on market went from 14 to 21.
- Bordeaux (37218): 53% to 73%. Biggest jump of any ZIP.
- Hickory Hollow (37217): days on market went from 12 to 29.
What’s going on with the economy
Nationally, things look fine on paper. The economy grew at a 3.4% rate last quarter. Employers added 165,000 jobs in October and unemployment is 4.1%.
The problem is inflation. It’s still running 3.7%, and the Fed already raised rates in September. Markets are betting heavily on another hike at the December 8 and 9 meeting.
Mortgage rates came down a little, to 7.18% in early November from 7.40% in mid October. That’s still about a full point higher than a year ago. On a $460,000 house, a point is real money every month, and it hits the buyers borrowing the most first. That lines up with the top price ranges falling hardest.
I can’t prove rates caused all of this from MLS data alone. But the timing fits.
What I’d tell you if you asked me
If you’re selling: don’t price off what your neighbor got in April. The market moved $25,000 since summer. Price it off the last 90 days. If you don’t have serious showings in the first three weeks, the price is the problem.
If you’re buying: you have leverage you didn’t have six months ago. In a lot of these ZIP codes, three out of four homes closed under asking.
If you have to sell by a certain date: have a backup plan. Right now more listings are failing than closing. That backup could be a lower price, or it could be a cash offer. If you want to know what a cash number looks like on your house, call or text me at 615-436-8003. I’ll tell you straight, even if listing it is the better move for you.
What I’m watching next
- The December Fed meeting. If they hike, rates go up again. If they don’t, we might get a little relief.
- November and December closings. Those are contracts signed after rates peaked in October. They’ll tell us if the small dip brought any buyers back.
- Homes over $1.5M. They fell first and fell the most. When things turn around, I expect to see it there first.
How I got these numbers
I pulled every residential listing in Davidson County from RealTracs, our local MLS, on November 9, 2026. I combined it with earlier pulls and removed duplicates by MLS number. Sales are grouped by the date they closed. Cancelled and expired listings are grouped by the date they came off the market. ZIP codes that cross into another county only include the Davidson side.
Tasha, Sell My House Fast TN. Feel free to share or quote these numbers, just credit us.